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[School of Mathematics and Statistics]
Applied Mathematics Seminar
    
  
 
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Dr David Wilson

Faculty of Medicine

University of New South Wales




                  
Mathematical Solutions to Ethical Problems: Allocation of HIV Antiretrovirals in Resource-Constrained Countries
Wednesday 26th October 14:05-14:55pm, Carslaw Building Room 373.


In many resource-constrained countries the number of HIV-infected individuals in need of treatment will far exceed the supply of antiretroviral drugs (ARVs). When ARVs are scarce then resource-allocation decisions must be made at a number of levels. Decisions should be made on the basis of ethical criteria; however, there are many strategies that could be considered ethical. The quantitative analysis of different ethical strategies will be presented. The levels of decision-making are: (1) what proportion of the drugs should be allocated to each region (to each province, and then to each health district - whether urban or rural)?; (2) how many ARVs are to be allocated to each health care facility within each region?; (3) which particular groups should be chosen to have treatment priority?. Here, a presentation is given on investigations at the levels of decision-making of ARV allocations at the regional level, and at the level of ARV allocations to health care facilities. Mathematical tools of differential equations, difference equations, operations research, and uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to address these problems will also be discussed.