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Raimundas Vidunas
School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sydney
Detecting persistent regimes in the North Atlantic Oscillation time
series
Wednesday 26th July 14:05-14:55pm,
Carslaw Building Room 373.
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a dominant factor of
atmospheric variability in the Northern hemishpere. It is
characterized by the (anti)correlation of winter weather patterns in
the Nothern Europe and subtropical Atlantic, noticed already by
seafaring Scandinavians. The NAO indexes are calculated(by James
Hurrell) from recorded sea level pressures for the last 140 years. In
this talk, we consider the most variable winter seasonal NAO index,
which is just a time series of length 142. Rather straightforwardly,
we look at the distribution of the NAO values, thus disregarding their
temporal order. It appears that this distribution differs drastically
from the Gaussian normal distribution, with about 10 peaks. This
suggests that some NAO index values appear persistently often, and
that there must be persistent regimes of European winter weather
patterns. We check whether the NAO value distribution varies with
time, and check other climatic time series for occurence of persistent
regimes.
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